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solution

The risk manager for the company needs to better understand the risk of car accidents once
the driver leaves the company premises at location A. He has gathered the following
information.
• The probability of having a car accident is 0.25%.
• The probability of the brakes failing and causing that car accident is 3.25%.
• The probability of high speed being involved in that car accident is 20%.
a. Prepare an event tree that shows the probability of each of the following outcomes: (3
points each)
i. The probability that the brakes failed and high speed was involved in the accident.
ii. The probability that the brakes failed and high speed was not involved in the
accident.
iii. The probability that the brakes did not fail and high speed was involved in the
accident.
iv. The probability that the brakes did not fail and high speed was not involved in the
accident.
b. How does the event tree in 3.a. help the risk manager when making decisions about the
risk of car accidents when drivers leave location A?

a and b

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